Cluckin' Good Picks

Somebody forgot to tell UMass they're supposed to be bad this year. The MAC's own coaches picked them to finish dead last in the preseason poll, and then quarterback William Watson III went out and mugged Rutgers as 28.5-point underdogs in Week 1 — 19-of-22, three touchdowns, zero picks. They're 3–0. Nobody saw that coming, least of all Rutgers.

Now they roll into Sacramento to face a Hornets team that's 1–3 and still figuring out which way is up. Sac State jumped straight from the Big Sky into the MAC this year — their first season ever at the FBS level — and that kind of jump usually looks exactly like a 1–3 record. This is also their first-ever MAC home game, which sounds charming until you remember "historic first" and "get run out of your own building early" are not mutually exclusive.

The full-game line has UMass −5.5, but at least one model projects the Minutemen to win by just 3 — the market's a little higher on UMass than the model is. That's a full-game conversation, though. In the first half specifically, UMass has been the team getting off to fast starts, while Sac State is still adjusting to a level of competition their roster wasn't fully built for yet.

Take UMass −2.5 in the first half.

These two have only played once — the legendary 54–48 double-overtime classic in the 2017 CFP semifinal at the Rose Bowl. There was supposed to be a home-and-home starting in 2023, but the SEC blocked it once Oklahoma's move to the conference was announced, so Georgia swapped in Ball State instead. So this Saturday is meeting number two — and the first time they're doing it as conference rivals instead of a scheduled novelty.

Georgia opened as roughly a 10-point favorite in the early look-ahead lines, and the market has since pushed it up to −13.5, which tells you where the confidence is trending. The dogs aren't here to play around — for this program, "double-digit favorite" isn't a big ask, it's just Tuesday.

Who's that coming down the track? Oklahoma's about to find out.

Take Georgia −13.5.

Arkansas is ugly, and it's not hyperbole — it's a box score. The Razorbacks are 1–2 heading into this one, and the losses aren't close: a 43–10 blowout at Utah, followed by a 37–0 shutout at the hands of Georgia last week. Zero points. Against an SEC opponent.

This isn't just a rough patch, it's a rebuild in real time. Arkansas fired its head coach mid-2025, ran an interim the rest of the way, and brought in Ryan Silverfield this offseason. He's already on record saying a first half his team played was "probably one of the worst I've ever been associated with," and the fan base and donor class have been openly frustrated enough that the athletic director's own job security gets talked about.

Tulsa just needs to show up and play a clean, competitive game — they don't need to win outright, just keep it within a touchdown against a team that got run off its own field last week.

Take Tulsa +7.